Dr. Can Van Luc: Real estate companies should make correct and successful recommendations, not complain

Is the real estate market recovering

Share at event morning of December 14 Dr. Can Van Luc – BIDV chief economist – evaluates the real estate market Assets are starting to show more positive signs compared to last year and the beginning of this year.

Capital flows to investment markets are showing positive changes in the second half of the year Market stock are recovering, bank interest rates have cooled to low levels like the pre-Covid-19 period, inflation rates are being controlled.

Mr. Luc assessed Vietnam as one of the countries reversing its monetary policy Interest rates will at least stay flat or decrease slightly in both mobilization and lending in the near future. The macroeconomic picture also has many positive signs. This year’s economic growth is expected to reach 5-52% and inflation will decrease to 3-30.05 while at the beginning of the year it was 5%.

With Real estate experts recently assessed that the National Assembly passed the Housing Law 2023 and the revised Real Estate Business Law, which may soon be a revised Land Law. This is unprecedented when all three important laws related to the real estate market were passed at almost the same time, creating major changes.

However, Mr. Luc said that the market still has “dark spots” such as the real estate bad debt ratio increasing from 172 % at the end of last year increased to 289% as of September 2023 but is still below 3% under control.

The corporate bond market cannot recover quickly in 2024 and will have about 23,000 billion bonds mature. However, this number is still lower than the peak maturity of September 2023.

Mr. Luc said that in the current context, businesses need to continue to make recommendations to properly and successfully remove problems. The solution is not to complain. Businesses must also be determined to restructure, accept price reductions, diversify capital sources, market partners, and segments to reduce risks.

What is the market recovery roadmap?

At the event, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh – Deputy General Director of Batdongsan.com.vn – assessed that Vietnam’s real estate market in 2023 has seen positive moves and is similar to the current period. Reversal of the previous cycle.

In the 2008-2012 cycle, real estate inventory increased continuously. By 2013, a market reversal signal appeared when credit was loosened, the VND 30,000 billion support package and the revised Land Law was passed to support the market.

At the present time, in terms of interest rates from the beginning of 2023The State Bank has adjusted the ceiling deposit interest rate 3 times and lowered the operating interest rate 4 times. Many banks have reduced deposit interest rates by 3-5% compared to the beginning of the year.

In terms of credit growth, the credit growth limit for 2023 is 14-15% compared to 14% last year. However, as of November 22, credit growth for the entire system only reached 80.21, lower than the target set at the beginning of the year.

In addition, the revised Real Estate Business Law and revised Housing Law The changes were passed and will take effect from the beginning of 2025. The real estate market also benefits from the Government’s actions and many positive policies are issued…

Therefore, Mr. Quoc Anh introduced predicts that the turning point of the real estate market may appear from the second quarter to the fourth quarter of 2024. The market will then enter a new cycle and go through 4 phases: exploration, consolidation, prosperity and stability.

In which the prosperity phase may start from the second quarter of 2025 to the fourth quarter/ 2025 and after the first quarter of 2026, the real estate industry may gradually enter a period of stability.