Today, November 15, marks a historic milestone as the United Nations announces that the global population has crossed the 8 billion mark. This surge in population brings with it a multitude of impacts ranging from health to environmental challenges.
How Will 8 Billion People Affect Earth? – 1
According to the 2022 World Population Prospects Report, as of today, the global population has reached 8 billion people. We achieved this milestone just 11 years after reaching 7 billion in 2011.
The Impact of a Growing Population on Earth
The relationship between global population and its effects on our planet is undeniably intricate. However, one thing is certain: as the human population grows, there is progressively less room for the rest of Earth’s life forms.
To date, approximately three-quarters of the Earth’s land area and two-thirds of its oceans have been significantly altered by human activity. Humans now account for one-third of the total biomass of all terrestrial mammals, measured in carbon content. Of this, livestock constitutes almost the entirety of the remaining biomass, leaving a mere 2% for wild mammals.
How Many People Can Live Sustainably?
While all 8 billion people are currently living and breathing, how many can truly live sustainably? A 2020 study concluded that our current food systems can sustain around 3 billion people without exceeding the planet’s critical boundaries.
Remarkably, with just a few adjustments—primarily in crop and plant management—this number could potentially be increased to near 8 billion. By further reducing meat consumption and minimizing food waste, we could support approximately 10 billion people.
Nonetheless, our population is aging. This demographic shift implies that there will be fewer individuals available to support the growing number of dependents.
Will Birth Rates Continue to Decline?
According to projections from IHME, global birth rates are expected to continue their decline. Currently, two-thirds of the global population resides in areas where fertility rates (the average number of children born to a woman) have fallen below replacement levels, as reported by the United Nations.
Population numbers have already decreased in several low-fertility countries, including Japan, Italy, Greece, and Portugal. IHME notes, “We have reached the peak number of children. There will never be more children living at any given time than there are now, as global birth rates continue to drop.
Even in regions with high youth populations, such as India, a drop below replacement fertility rates will not lead to immediate population declines. Instead, the effects will be delayed by several decades. For instance, Vollset’s projections estimate that India’s population will peak at 1.6 billion by 2049 before declining to 1.1 billion by 2100.
According to UN forecasts, most of the population growth up to 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Tanzania.
World Population Projected to Reach 11 Billion by the 2080s
It might seem like the global population is increasing faster than ever. However, in reality, our growth rate is slowing significantly, with birth rates now below the replacement level necessary to sustain the population across most regions.
In 2019, the United Nations projected that the global population would reach 11 billion by 2100. However, recent forecasts suggest this figure might be reached sooner, specifically by the 2080s.
Earlier this year, updated UN predictions indicated that the world population would be around 9.7 billion by 2050. This potential reduction in population growth offers a glimmer of hope for climate change mitigation efforts and preventing the mass extinction of species.
