In a recent national poll, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 7-point lead over former President Donald Trump, capturing the attention of political analysts and voters alike.
The survey, conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University in New Jersey and released late last week, reveals that Harris, the Democratic Party’s standard-bearer, is enjoying 50% of the nationwide support. Meanwhile, Trump, the Republican frontrunner, trails behind with 43%.
When broken down by party affiliation, both Harris and Trump secure overwhelming support within their respective parties, each garnering 95% approval from their base.
Among independent voters—those who don’t align strongly with either party—Harris has a slight edge over Trump, leading by 5 percentage points.
The pollsters noted that Trump’s base remains robust among “traditionally masculine” male voters, whereas Harris draws substantial backing from women and men with differing views on gender roles.
Trump has long crafted his political persona as a strong, traditionally masculine white male. While this was once a significant strength, its impact is less certain today,” observed Dan Cassino, a professor of government and politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, who also led the polling effort.
Survey results suggest that factors such as race and gender are playing a pivotal role in boosting Harris’s support. Among voters who are indifferent to an applicant’s race or gender, the race is tight, with Harris at 47% and Trump at 48%. However, among those who consider gender important, Harris leads with 52% to Trump’s 42%. The gap widens further when race is a factor, with Harris ahead by 53% to Trump’s 39%.
Cassino added that while race is an influential factor in elections, it is not necessarily decisive. He pointed out that Trump still enjoys solid support from non-white voters who do not prioritize race in their decision-making.
Since stepping in as the Democratic candidate in place of President Joe Biden, Harris has quickly made a mark on the electorate, consistently leading Trump in national polls and in key battleground states.
A national polling aggregate by election analyst Nate Silver, published earlier this month, also shows Harris ahead of Trump by a narrow margin of 1.4 percentage points. Despite these figures, many political strategists caution that it’s still too early to make definitive predictions about the outcome of the November election.
