As winter approaches, it’s crucial for the public to mentally prepare for the potential risks posed by extreme weather conditions this season.
Today (November 13), Northern Vietnam and North Central Vietnam began experiencing early morning chills, with cooler daytime temperatures and some areas seeing rain. This weather pattern is not unique to Vietnam but is also being observed in various parts of the world as winter sets in.
Recently, meteorologists in China have issued warnings, urging people to brace themselves for the extreme weather risks expected this winter, as reported by SCMP.
The culprit behind these warnings is the El Niño phenomenon occurring towards the end of 2023, coupled with the ongoing effects of global warming, which could heighten the risk of natural disasters.
El Niño Makes Matters Worse
“Cold air will periodically sweep through, while the southern regions will see increased rainfall. The likelihood of complex meteorological disasters will rise,” stated the China Meteorological Administration in a notice on November 11.
The agency also predicted that temperatures across most regions from this winter through next spring will either match or exceed those of previous years.
This scenario could lead to heavier rainfall, along with complex weather patterns like snowstorms, posing significant threats to power transmission, transportation, and agriculture.
Professor Adam Scaife from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) noted that El Niño years typically begin with a mild and wet winter (from November to December). However, by the end of winter (from January to March), the weather tends to become colder and drier.
Yet, this pattern is merely an average observed across many El Niño occurrences and isn’t definitive. “El Niño changes the odds for these outcomes,” Professor Scaife explained.
According to the WMO, an El Niño cycle often brings record-breaking extremes in both high and low temperatures, lasting throughout the year and sometimes for several years.
These conditions can also lead to severe droughts, heavy rainfall, and flooding, which in turn can cause a range of health issues, including disease outbreaks, malnutrition, and respiratory illnesses.
In 2023, we’ve already seen China grappling with a series of weather-related disasters, including catastrophic summer floods that claimed at least 33 lives in Beijing and 29 in Hebei Province.
Beijing recorded its heaviest rainfall in 140 years, while Lincheng in Hebei Province saw two years’ worth of rainfall in a single day.
Meanwhile, the Americas and Europe faced a record-breaking hot summer, with temperatures repeatedly hitting new highs in several countries. Last summer, heatwaves in Europe claimed at least 61,000 lives, according to Reuters. This year, that number could potentially rise even higher.
What Is El Niño?
El Niño events typically occur every 2 to 7 years, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator.
This warming is powerful enough to cause significant disruptions in global weather patterns and severely impact marine ecosystems, especially when combined with the effects of human-induced climate change.
Michelle L’Heureux, a physical scientist at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, explained, “Depending on its intensity, El Niño can have widespread impacts, such as increasing the likelihood of heavy rainfall and drought in certain regions around the world.”
Additionally, El Niño is known to set new temperature records, particularly in areas that are already experiencing above-average temperatures during an El Niño event.
So far, 2016 holds the record for the world’s hottest average temperatures, coinciding with a strong El Niño. However, researchers suggest that 2023 might set a new record.
