In the future, a mountainside in Norway will plummet into the sea below, unleashing a ferocious tsunami. Yet, despite this looming threat, the residents near the fjord remain remarkably calm.
Akerneset Mountain, located in western Norway, is a verdant, shrub-covered slope that has been gradually fragmenting for decades. The eastern side of the mountain erodes by 10 cm annually, steadily sliding into the Sunnylvsfjorden fjord below, according to AFP. The entire mountainside is extremely unstable and moving, potentially causing a massive collapse,” explained geologist Lars Harald Blikra, who has been monitoring the crevice at the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate for 20 years. “The falling rocks, breaking away from the mountain, will plunge directly into the fjord, triggering powerful tsunamis. This event could occur within the next 2-3 years or maybe in 50 years. We simply don’t know.”
A 2016 risk assessment by the Norwegian Directorate for Civil Protection suggested that 54 million cubic meters of rock could dislodge, generating a tsunami towering several meters high in mere minutes, inundating 10 villages along the narrow fjord. In 1934, a landslide just a few kilometers away caused a deadly tsunami that reached 64 meters high, claiming 40 lives.
The villages of Hellesylt and Geiranger, situated at the innermost part of the fjord, face the greatest risk. In a worst-case scenario, these popular tourist spots could be engulfed by waves reaching 70-80 meters high. Olav Arne Merok, a septuagenarian who has lived his entire life in Geiranger, would be among those affected. “Here, we live at an elevation of 30-40 meters. Clearly, if a 90-meter wave hits, we would be underwater. But we can’t live in constant fear thinking about that,” Merok explained.
At the dock, where cruise ships anchor during the summer, 69-year-old boat agent Geir Gjorva also exudes tranquility. “No one knows how big the wave will be. It could come slowly or quickly. It’s not something we discuss daily. People know the warning system and emergency measures are well in place,” Gjorva shared.
Due to the lurking danger, Akerneset is one of the most monitored mountains globally. A network of GPS and ground-based survey equipment, along with sensors embedded in the earth, track every movement of the mountain to issue warnings if necessary. According to geologists, the mountainside will not collapse into the sea without prior warning signs. Significant indicators will precede the main fracturing activity, providing ample time for evacuation.
“Evacuating thousands from a small area due to landslide risk is a nightmare for a mayor,” admitted Einar Arve Nordang, the newly appointed mayor of Stranda, which includes the villages of Hellesylt and Geiranger. “But we are ready.” All emergency plans are laid out, with every agency knowing its role when disaster strikes.
At the summit of Akerneset, experts are devising ways to delay the catastrophe. One potential solution is to drain water from the mountain, which acts both as a lubricant and a pressure agent. However, this task is complex and costly as all equipment must be transported by helicopter. Sverre Magnus Havig, director at the Water Resources and Energy Directorate, stated that such measures could significantly slow the mountain’s collapse. Instead of a landslide risk within a hundred or two hundred years, it might occur in a thousand years,” Havig remarked.